INVESTIGATION: Why Kagame is Reluctant to Open Gatuna Border

In January 2019, a meeting of top Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) officials was held at the ruling party’s headquarters in Rusororo.

Security services had invited all businessmen importing Ugandan goods.

An order was passed on to the traders to reduce the quantities of imports from Uganda.

For example, if a trader was importing 5,000 crates of Nile Special beer from Uganda every week, they had to reduce the quantity by 80 percent and later 100 percent.

The traders said Ugandan goods were cheap and easier to transport to Kigali but the security personnel were taking no excuses: do as instructed; no questions.

The RPF officials were implementing a grand master plan approved by President Kagame was to “hit Uganda where it hurts most” – economy.

And indeed, since the closure of the border in February 2019, according Gideon Badagawa, the Private Sector Foundation boss, Uganda has been losing $16 million (Shs58.9b) every month.

This has negatively affected Ugandan food and beverages, steel, roofing materials, cement and sugar exports.

According to a joint communique issued after the Quadripartite in Katuna this past week, Rwanda’s opening of the border will be dependent on Kampala investigating and acting on suspected dissident groups operating from Uganda.

President Kagame had earlier said restoration of good relations with Uganda would depend on the leadership in Ugandan acting on the issues raised by Kigali particularly “innocent people” being allegedly jailed in Uganda and authorities in Kampala supporting anti-Rwanda elements.

By putting conditions on the border reopening, Rwanda can as well use any other excuse to keep it shut.

For example, Uganda has had issues with Rwanda since the late 1990s.

Both countries have previously hurled counter accusations of supporting armed movements in the region.

Rwanda was blamed for the rise of People’s Redemption Army (PRA) and supporting opposition in Uganda.

On its part, Kigali accused Kampala of helping opposition within RPF ranks.

Nyamwasa and Patrick Karegeya crossed to Uganda from Rwanda, escalating tensions but the border remained open.

Both countries went to war in Kisangani, DRC – the climax of the bad blood between the two neighbours. Why didn’t it cross Kagame’s mind to cross the border? Why now?

Speaking at the recent meeting in Kigali, Uganda’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Sam Kutesa wondered why some well-off Rwandans continued to use RwandAir to travel to Uganda if they felt their security was threatened

Inside Story:

Investigations conducted by ChimpReports indicate Kagame decided to close the border due to fear of an armed movement that was threatening his hold onto power.

He was told refugees were being helped to shift to DRC for military training with the view of toppling the leadership in Kigali.

And as long as the security threat persists, the border will most likely remain closed even if Uganda acted on Kigali’s concerns.

Fears of refugees

In addition to refugees being wooed to take up arms against Kagame, some Rwandans were leaving their country to join the rebellion.

This was dangerous for Kagame because the decision of these Rwandans would justify fighting Kagame.

If those who live under Kagame are picking arms, what about those who have lived in refugee camps such as Nakivale and Oruchinga settlements in South Western Uganda for decades?

Kagame feared that the fleeing locals would boost the rebels’ morale and numbers.

It’ll be recalled that several rebel movements have in recent months attacked Rwanda. The government possibly fears that allowing unhindered movement in the region could see rebel movements easily boost their ranks with combatants.

Kagame’s fear of the refugee communities in Uganda was documented by researcher Frank Ahimbisibwe.

He says in his report that Rwandan security operatives who visit Uganda, spy on or kidnap refugees. This insecurity is heightened by the closeness of the settlements to Rwanda (Nakivale and Oruchinga are approximately 70 and 52 kilometers respectively from the border).

A refugee man noted that “Nakivale is just like a part of Rwanda….the Rwandan authorities know exactly what is taking place here in Nakivale. Nakivale is near Rwanda and is easily accessible by Rwandan security.”

A refugee man added that “Nakivale is like a territory of Rwanda. President Kagame knows exactly what happens here. He knows those who have money, how many children per family and those who are politically active. His main aim is to kill those who are rich and politically active. He considers them a threat to his regime”.

Another interviewee said: “There is an example of a Rwandan refugee who was abducted here in Nakivale settlement and put in a car by unknown people. Fortunately enough, the person was rescued by the Ugandan police near Kabingo town. We later learnt that our colleague had been abducted by Rwandan agents who wanted to take him to Kigali”.

Refugees expressed fears of spying and possible abduction by the Rwandan agents.

Ahimbisibwe, who interviewed Ugandan security officials for his academic report, said they acknowledged that there was frequent spying on the refugees from Rwandan officials seeking intelligence on suspected genocide perpetrators or refugees involved in armed rebellion against Rwanda.

An OPM official noted: “There is a time when we arrested Rwandan agents in Nakivale and we asked them to leave. It is common knowledge that Rwandan spies operate in settlements”.

Various stakeholders from OPM, UNHCR and NGOs noted that the Rwandan government has genuine reasons for closely monitoring refugees in Uganda because it knows their potential as a security threat.

One of the officials noted that “President Kagame was here in Uganda as a refugee. The struggle to liberate Rwanda started here in Nakivale. He knows very well these refugees can be mobilized by people opposed to his government. He has interest in returning all refugees to avoid future insecurity”.

This refugee threat could be the reason Kagame has been pushing for the extradition treaty with Uganda.

Leverage

President Museveni has been globe-trotting in search of investors to develop the manufacturing sector.

Government’s Vision 2040 plans to drive Uganda’s aspiration to become an upper middle income country by 2040 with a GDP per capita of USD 9,500.

This requires sustained economic growth and poverty reduction, savings and investment growth and significant transformation in the trade structure.

However, a blocked border with neighbours can scare away potential investors who are interested in exporting to regional markets or even lead to capital flight.

Roofings, which manufactures iron sheets and other steel products, had a monthly shipment of between 600 and 1,000 tonnes of exports to Rwanda estimated at between $7m and $8m.

In June 2018, for example, Hima Cement commissioned a $40m factory in Tororo that sought to increase its capacity to produce both for local and the export market.

The Daily Monitor reported that the plant added about 0.8 million tonnes per annum to the Cement manufacturer’s capacity in addition to the 0.9 million tonnes that it had been producing at the Kasese plant. But its cement is not allowed into Rwanda.

Kagame hopes that keeping a lock on Katuna border will bring Museveni to his knees and force him to address the Rwandan leader’s concerns or risk frustrating local and foreign investors.

Opposition Recruitment

The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) has in recent years faced defections of top shots to the opposition.

According to president Museveni, some of these officials, are based in South Africa.

These include Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa among others. Opening the border would see make it easier for dissenters to quietly leave the country.

For example, musician Kizito Mihigo, the composer of Rwanda’s national anthem who would sing at presidential ceremonies, was intercepted by security as he reportedly tried to flee to Burundi.

Police later said he committed suicide in jail. Mihigo was in company of two others who were said to be fleeing the country to join rebel movements in the region. If the border was open, they would easily crossed to Uganda like the rest of travelers.

Kagame hopes by attacking these militant groups in DRC and pressuring Kampala to contain opposition movements in Uganda before lifting the travel ban would breathe new life into his government.

Economic difficulties  

In August, 2019, President Museveni and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, met in Luanda, Angola.

Upon learning that they had signed a “friendship agreement” to work on the normalization of relations, hundreds of Rwandans rushed to the border with Uganda.

Nelson Nshangabasheija, the Katuna Town Council Mayor, said then that Rwandans were restrained by armed security personnel from crossing into Uganda.

“These people had come in large numbers, thinking the border would be opened only to be forced back to their homes,” he said.

The communities of Uganda and Rwanda are so intertwined as a result of intermarriages, cross border trade and historical relations.

Kagame fears that opening the border would encourage Rwandans to flock to Uganda in search of food, jobs and economic opportunities, leading to a serious embarrassment.

After closing the border, Ugandan television stations captured videos of desperate Rwandans crossing rivers for food in Uganda.

It is suspected that after opening the border to Ugandan goods, Kigali might temporarily maintain its travel ban on Rwandans from traveling to Uganda. This would allow proper management of Rwandans’ travel to avoid embarrassments considering the population along the border is grappling with acute shortage of food, sugar, salt, medicine and other basis household essentials.

Additionally, thousands of Rwandans who were studying from Ugandan education institutions were blocked from returning home.

For example, Bishop Barham University College Kabale – a constituent College of Uganda Christian University had about 120 Rwandan students who were blocked from crossing into Uganda after closure of Katuna border in February 2019.

The affected students would return to Uganda and possibly not return until completion of their studies as they would not be sure if Kigali would not close the border again.