Analysis: Gen Muhoozi Warns as Ugandan Forces Prepare for the Worst with Rwanda

Ugandan military units stationed along the Southwestern and western border areas are readying for attacks from either Rwandan forces or their proxies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chimp Corps report.

It remains unclear what a Rwandan attack would look like but officials say the Ugandan military forces remain at the highest level of preparedness.

The Senior Presidential Advisor in Charge of Special Operations, Lt Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba tweeted on Sunday that Uganda’s enemies planning an attack should brace for severe repercussions.

“Whoever dares to attack Uganda will learn that they are dealing with an empire,” said Muhoozi, a Sandhurst-trained military officer and former Special Forces Commander.

He emphasised: “… and we shall defeat them.”

While Muhoozi did not reveal the identities of the adversaries, it is understood he was referring to Rwanda.

Muhoozi did not provide context for the word ‘empire’ but he is thought to have been referring to Uganda’s deep connections with regional and global super powers such as United Kingdom.

In the Greatlakes region, Uganda currently enjoys good relations with DRC, Burundi, Kenya and Tanzania.

Preparations

The deployment of Uganda’s battle-hardened combatants, who included experienced tacticians and war veterans, started in September 2018.

Heavy weaponry which included tanks and long-range artillery pieces were deployed in the western border areas to counter security threats.

At the time, Defence spokesperson Brigadier Richard Karemire, said “UPDF will remain alert on our border and ready to always protect lives and property of our people.”

While President Museveni and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame have continued to hold talks to resolve tensions between the two countries, Uganda appears determined not to take chances.

With the help of DRC government, Rwanda has in recent months intensified deployment of military forces from the South Kivu to North Kivu in eastern DRC near the Ugandan border.

Gen Muhoozi’s Sunday warning tweets appear to have rattled Kigali considering the response from Rwanda’s propagandists.

Tom Ndahiro, who describes himself as a genocide scholar but is a known close associate of President Kagame, responded to Muhoozi’s tweets: “Something is seriously wrong. The video and the “Empire” means what @mkainerugaba? So we have Emperor @KagutaMuseveni CBE with a European Army!”

On Monday, Ndahiro further tweeted: “If @KagutaMuseveni’s Uganda is waiting to implement the Angola MOU only after Ugandans are harassed, detained, tortured in #Rwanda, and then handed over to Ugandan authorities as reciprocity, then this crisis will not end. None is detained to be released!”

Muhoozi warning

This is the third time in less than six months that Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, a consumer of refined intelligence information, is warning about a possible attack on Uganda.

Muhoozi, who previously commanded Uganda’s Special Forces’ operations in Somalia, DRC and South Sudan, last year warned: “I can assure whoever even thinks of messing with Uganda will get a very bad day. Long live UPDF! Long live Ugandan Special Forces!”

His tweet carried pictures of Special Forces operators from the commando battalion.

Earlier on Independence Day, Muhoozi tweeted: “Ugandan strong! I never used to believe it but Almighty God has made me a believer. Nobody can defeat Uganda! This is God’s country.  Whoever dares will be crushed to dust!”

Rarely does Muhoozi issue threats or warnings. Until recently, Muhoozi would use his Twitter handle to promote content related to tourism, infrastructure development, aviation and international business.

More so, the General is known for concealing his views and sentiments about hot topics such as security.

But that Muhoozi is now publicly issuing warnings to those he says intend to destabilize Uganda, points to growing concerns over regional threats.

Over the last one year, Uganda has been overhauling and modernizing is aerospace forces; intensifying training of commando forces and mountain brigades.

In the Western and South western flanks, UPDF has not only reinforced their outposts, bases and airfields but also displayed latest military equipment including new battle tanks.

The influx of new forces was prompted by increased activities of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Muslim fundamentalist militant group operating in eastern Congo.

Rebels in 2018 managed to kick out UN forces from their operational areas in North Kivu after mounting heavy attacks on UN bases and shooting at the peacekeepers’ choppers.

The Chief of Defence Forces Gen David Muhoozi recently commissioned the Mountain Division trained by French forces to oversee security in the mountainous areas along the border with DRC.

The new troops, well equipped with modern reconnaissance systems, are acting as a defensive force to boost security in the Rwenzori and Southwestern areas and only respond to an attack with major ground offensives, according to informed officials.

The force is being kept on standby for these particular emergencies.

The secretive Special Forces, which have been training in many areas in western and Northern Uganda, are expected to take key roles in reacting to any attack by Rwanda.

Unlike in the past when Uganda would rely on vast land invasion like in the early 1990s in the DRC, the December 2018 attack on ADF territory underscored UPDF’s growing reliance on air and long-range artillery.

However, diplomats say a conflict between Rwanda and Uganda would lead to capital flight; destruction of lives and property; and fuel insecurity in the region.

For example, due to security tensions in the region, Uganda’s trade surplus with neighbours fell from $932m (Shs3.4t) in 2017/2018 to only $11 million (Shs340b) in the year ended June 30.

According to the 2020/2021 Budget Framework Paper to Parliament, Uganda in 2018/2019 only exported goods worth $1.16b to her neighbours compared to $1.55b in 2017/2018.

On other hand, researcher John Campbell recently reported that Rwanda’s decision to close its border has hurt its own people more than Ugandans.

According to each country’s Consumer Price Index reports, prices in Rwanda, especially in rural areas, have risen more than in Uganda.

They have risen about 1.5 percent each month in Rwanda, totaling over seven percent since February, when the border was closed.

“In rural areas, prices have risen ten percent over that period. These rising prices have taken a toll, especially for those living in rural poverty. In contrast, food prices in Uganda have only increased by four percent and overall prices by only two percent,” said Campbell in a report for the Council on Foreign Relations Africa programme.

“Kagame’s leadership has resulted in remarkable development feats since the 1994 genocide. However, his current decision to keep the borders closed is a blemish on his development record—costing the country jobs and inflating prices. If Kagame’s and Museveni’s relationship continues to deteriorate, prices will continue to rise, further hurting the purchasing power of Rwandans,” said Campbell.