EXCLUSIVE: How Amama Mbabazi Returned to Queue to Succeed Museveni

By Andrew Kanda

• Inside State House Meeting on Return of NRA Cadres
• Why Return of Mbabazi is Good for Lt Gen Kainerugaba
• Would Mbabazi Presidency Throw Besigye off Balance

Sometime in 2015, President Museveni held a meeting with his closest confidants who included Gen Salim Saleh and Gen Elly Tumwiine at State House Entebbe.

High on the agenda was the growing levels of corruption in the country, government inefficiency, diminishing public trust in security services, high crime rate, youth unemployment and regional security threats.

Museveni was bitter with almost all branches of the state – executive for not doing enough to deliver public services and combat poverty; the judiciary for releasing criminals on bail and Parliament for not taking interest in development projects in rural areas.

An official who attended the meeting said Museveni and Saleh argued that the best thing to do was return responsibility of managing core institutions to NRA cadres.

Their argument was that NRA had selfless officers who not only risked their lives for a better Uganda but were hugely interested in consolidating the country’s development gains and security.

“That’s how Kaka Bagyenda returned from Kalangala to head Internal Security Organisation (ISO) and Abel Kandiho to take charge of military intelligence in UPDF,” recalled the senior officer who talked to ChimpReports today Saturday morning for this story.

“Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde was brought to run the security docket. And even after being fired for disagreeing with Kayihura, Tumukunde was replaced with Tumwiine, an NRA combatant.”

Battle-hardened UPDF soldiers with decades of experience in training, logistics and intelligence are quietly taking over key positions in police, immigration, Ministries and the national broadcaster among others.

NRA cadre, Gen Katumba Wamala was recently promoted from Works State Minister to a full cabinet minister.

Museveni was even so impressed by NRA veterans’ performance in Somalia that he decided to order a fresh refresher courses for these retired combatants for military deployment.

Officials said while regular UPDF troops were able to capture plenty of territory from Al Shabaab, NRA war veterans swept through enemy towns with ease, minimal resistance and less casualties.

The Operation Wealth Creation is managed by NRA cadres such as Maj Topher Agaba, who were recalled from retirement.

The President recently participated in the Afrika Kwetu trek in central Uganda where he reconnected with NRA supporters and assessed the impact of funds dedicated to uplifting their wellbeing.

To many in NRM who understand Museveni’s long-term plan of returning NRA cadres to high profile positions were not surprised by the appearance of former premier and close friend, John Patrick Amama Mbabazi at several presidential functions.

President Museveni appears to have made peace with Mbabazi, raising prospects of the latter’s return to cabinet in the not-too-distant future.

In the corridors of power, Mbabazi, a hard-line former Attorney General and Defence Minister, is seen as a potential successor of President Museveni despite challenging the incumbent in the 2016 general elections.

Unlike most of Museveni’s youthful ministers, Mbabazi played a critical role in the formation of FRONASA, an armed force which gave birth to the National Resistance Army (NRA).

Mathew Rukikaire, who headed NRA’s External Committee which was charged with mobilisation of arms and funds for the war, said, “Unlike all other External Committee members, and non-members for that matter, Sam Katabarwa and Mbabazi were full-time workers of the struggle and did not have time to make a living for themselves.”

In in his recently-published autobiography, “70 Years a Witness”, Rukikaire further shed some light on the strong links between Museveni and Mbabazi: “I later learnt found out that some of Mbabazi’s work had to do with maintaining links with the Tanzanian intelligence and security organs. Mbabazi and Katabarwa were the first to know, before even myself, when Museveni was due to travel out of Uganda and what his plans were and what he was likely to be doing.”

Succession  

Museveni is known for showing empathy to his former rivals and even enemies as long as they agree to work with him.

This is evidenced by the incorporation of former rebel leaders such as Moses Ali in government.

The son of Tito Okello, Henry Okello Oryem is serving as Foreign Affairs State Minister while Betty Amongi, the wife of Milton Obote’s son, served as Lands Minister before being transferred to KCCA.

Former critics of the Museveni presidency such as Beti Kamya and Beatrice Anywar who led protests on Kampala streets against NRM’s polices, are comfortably serving in Museveni’s Cabinet.

Promise

According to Mbabazi’s family members, Museveni had categorically promised to relinquish power to Mbabazi ahead of the 2016 polls.

However, the two fell out, leading to the dismissal of Mbabazi as Prime Minister.

He also was uprooted as NRM Secretary General during a hastily-convened Delegates’ conference at Namboole.

The military police was dispatched to remove the guard post and sensitive communication equipment from Mbabazi’s residence in Kololo.

However, it is understood Mbabazi’s family members especially Rachel, who was recently appointed board chairperson of National Water and Sewerage Corporation, played a key role in reconciling his father with Museveni.

As Mbabazi gets closer to Museveni, observers say the former premier could soon turn out as the strongest contender for the Presidency after Museveni.

It had widely been thought by many analysts that the chances of Museveni’s former bush war comrade at the presidency had whined after his dismal performance at the 2016 general elections.

Mbabazi, has however, bounced back with a bang, proving his pessimists wrong.

The NRM historical was saluted for by the army at the ongoing Tarehe Sita celebrations as the army commemorates the start of the NRA offensive against the Obote regime in 1982.

Museveni greeting Mbabazi at Tarehe Sita celebrations in Nakaseke earlier this week

This was the third public meeting between the two since their bitter split a head of the 2016 polls.

In 2018, Museveni attended the traditional marriage ceremony of Mbabazi’s adopted daughter Bridget Birungi to Andile Ramaphosa in Kololo.

Museveni, who was flanked by First Lady Janet, arrived in Kololo in the morning hours and left late in the night.

During his speech, Mbabazi joked that he saw Museveni showering gifts on bride and groom but that he yet to receive any package from him.

But the Musevenis and Mbabazis appeared to be at ease, creating a conducive atmosphere for the marriage ceremony.

The senior military officers saluting Mbabazi at Tarehe Sita, an important day to mark NRA’s attack on Kabamba barracks, gave the impression that the former premier was indeed destined for bigger things.

Mbabazi could as well serve as a fallback position form Museveni as he has close links with the opposition and will potentially be able to unite the country whose people have greatly been divided.

Museveni will as well tactfully use Mbabazi to demoralise the opposition which in 2016 had tried to jointly support his presidential candidature.

Muhoozi factor

Mbabazi, using his international networks, had succeeded in convincing all the political parties in the country to support his presidential bid in 2016 save for the FDC.

This is a skill for which Museveni has unquestionable belief in his comrade’s expertise at the negotiating table.

Many had looked at Lt Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba as the man who would take over from his father but Museveni will try to first bring on board more opposition figures to diffuse the current volatile political environment.

Museveni believes Mbabazi will be the right man to bring the situation under control.

Besides, Mbabazi’s long history under the NRM government makes him a safe bet for the President.

With him in the top seat, his comrades would certainly be protected along with their wealth.

It is therefore safer for Museveni to have Mbabazi as president than Kizza Besigye whose anger towards the regime would certainly spell doom for its leaders.

After the 2021 general elections, Mbabazi is likely to be reappointed Prime Minister or even Vice president

Any of these positions would put him at the centre of things as Museveni’s involvement will be limited as age will have caught up with him.

Mbabazi will then be the man to handle government business as Museveni prepares for his retirement.

This will pave way for Mbabazi’s approval as the ruling party’s flag-bearer in the 2026 polls. Still some NRM top shots say Museveni has no plans of quitting.

However, age is catching up with Museveni who will be in 80s in the 2026 polls.

General Muhoozi can serve in important positions in the Mbabazi administration, as a way of preparing him for the most coveted office in 2031.

A Mbabazi presidency would pave way for Muhoozi to accumulate ample experience in running government business before taking power.

If Museveni gave way, Besigye’s opposition campaign which focuses on attacking the president’s personality, would be irrelevant.

According to FDC’s Proscovia Salam Musumba, the prospect of Mbabazi replacing his longtime political ally would be an exciting one.

“Any arrangement for a transition in a sister party would be good news to all Ugandans,” said Musumba.

“If he succeeds Museveni, I don’t see anything wrong with that. He has what it takes,” Musumba said about the former NRM Secretary General.

On whether Mbabazi would be a head of her boss Kizza Besigye in the queue to replace Museveni, Musumba reserved her comment, insisting that that would be a discussion for the future.